The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
ENSO Impact on Monsoon:
Meteorologists closely monitor Pacific Ocean temperatures ahead of monsoon season.
El Nino (warmer Pacific Ocean) often leads to decreased rainfall in India, while La Nina (cooler Pacific Ocean) leads to increased rain.
A recent study in Scientific Reports notes changes in the relationship between ENSO and Indian monsoon.
Central India's monsoon rainfall is now less linked to ENSO, while North India's connection to ENSO is strengthening.
Since 1901, the ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) relationship has varied.
From 1901 to 1940, the inverse relationship was stronger; from 1941 to 1980, it remained stable; but from 1981 onwards, it weakened.
Monsoon rainfall relies on ENSO's influence on trade winds and the monsoon trough.
The monsoon trough brings rain to India and is affected by low-level cyclones known as depressions.
Climate change has led to rising ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
This increase affects the formation of depressions during the monsoon season, impacting rain patterns.
The study suggests that ENSO's impact on central India's monsoon zone has become weaker.
Monsoon predictions for this region are now less reliable due to various factors, including Indian Ocean warming.
Monitoring Indian Ocean warming and its impact on the monsoon trough and depressions is crucial for accurate forecasts.
An El Nino forming in the Pacific is expected to strengthen, influencing monsoon rainfall in August and September.
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