The India Meteorological Department predicts an above normal monsoon this year, the first such forecast in eight years, bodes well for the economy’s growth and inflation outlook but the projection of below-par rainfall in parts of eastern, northeastern and northwestern India highlights the risks.
The monsoon forecast, coming amid extreme heatwave conditions, triggers hope for the farm sector and may serve as a check on high food inflation but the spatial distribution will matter as some regions, including the northwestern and eastern parts, are expected to see below normal rainfall
A healthy monsoon will also help replenish water reservoir levels that stood at 33% of total capacity on April 12 as compared with 39% last year.
This will support the rabi crop
Uneven distribution over regions and time in the past year, with other weather disturbances, had hurt agriculture output and incomes while keeping food inflation persistently high
Areas and/or crops that face a monsoon shock (if at all) for the second straight year could suffer more than others
With about 43% of total cropped area rain-dependent, adequate rainfall is required in July and August, the critical months for the kharif.
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