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Population trends UPSC NOTE


  • The world population is expected to touch 8.5 billion by the end of this decade. 

  • While Asia is expected to be overpopulated, Europe, it is said, will be underpopulated. 

  • Due to falling fertility levels and rising longevity, the future population could have a higher number and share of older people. 

  • Thus, the two significant transformations are expected to be an imbalanced distribution of the population across regions and a skewed age structure

  • The population today is more centred in urban areas. 

  • By 2030, it is estimated that two-third of the people will inhabit urban spaces, which will put a strain on infrastructure and amenities. 

  • This, in turn, could compromise the quality of life of urban citizens.

Focus on Women's Health

  • The theme of this world population day is ‘women’s sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights’, marking the 30th anniversary of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). 

  • This gives us an opportunity to accelerate efforts to realise the ICPD’s programme of action.

  • While there has been reasonable progress in three decades — women have greater access to modern contraceptives today and maternal deaths have declined considerably since 2000 — there are still unequal results across regions

  • It is unacceptable that each day, 800 women die globally from preventable causes relating to pregnancy and childbirth. 

  • A disproportionate share of these deaths occur in developing countries. 

  • Reduced maternal mortality levels need to be associated with reduced fertility levels because lower fertility reduces exposure to maternity. 

  • However, decline in fertility levels is also associated with delayed childbearing among women.

Migration & Urbanisation

  • The distribution of the population in the future will continue to be shaped by migration. 

  • In recent decades, we have seen greater mobility of people. 

  • People often migrate due to poor development and infrastructure in their regions

  • A study estimates that 60 crore Indians migrate within the country annually, and 2 crore migrate abroad. 

  • Given the potential of India’s future urbanisation, it is important to encourage the emergence of new cities in order to release pressure on existing mega cities. 

  • These need to have the same kinds of infrastructure and public amenities as the mega cities.

  • It is clear that cities are the drivers of the global economy. At present, 600 urban centres drive 60% of the world’s GDP. 

  • An assessment of global cities by Oxford Economics resulted in the Global Cities Index, which ranked the top cities in the world based on five categories: economics, human capital, quality of life, environment and governance. 

  • This exercise evaluates the urban quality of life, which needs to be studied so that the trends of rapid urbanisation and growing migration can be understood.

  • Most projections of India’s population are based on decades-old data. 

  • Until India conducts its census, we will only have estimates. 

  • It is important to know the exact count and the demographic makeup so that we can draft better policies.

  • Despite more countries adopting stringent immigration policies, more Indians will continue to emigrate, at least in the near future. 

  • At the same time, India needs to seriously prepare its workforce for the global labour market.



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Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam: Population trends UPSC NOTE
Population trends UPSC NOTE
Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam
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