Latest World Economic Outlook by the IMF
The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2024, similar to 2023, with a recession avoided.
The fight against inflation is "almost" won, with moderating inflation rates allowing for more supportive monetary policies.
Growth expectations have been downgraded for some regions due to conflicts and unrest, while emerging Asia (especially China and India) shows brighter prospects.
India's GDP Forecast
India's GDP growth is maintained at 7% for 2024-25, then 6.5% the following year.
The forecast reflects a slowdown due to the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the pandemic, impacting urban consumption.
Recent data shows GDP growth at 6.8% for Q2, slightly up from 6.7% in Q1.
Need for Domestic Reforms
India's economic future relies more on internal growth, with weaker exports and investment flows being concerning.
The IMF stresses the need for ambitious domestic reforms to boost competition and integration, enhance private investment, and reduce trade barriers.
Much of the reform work is needed at the State level, but central policymakers also need to push for a more open economy.
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