India’s goods exports stumbled in the second quarter, with a 5.8% drop in the first two months and a mere 0.5% rise in September.
By mid-year, exports were up just 1%.
Merchandise exports surged by 17.25% to $39.2 billion in October, driven by stronger demand for the Christmas season in developed markets.
Services exports were up 14.6% by September, keeping hopes alive for hitting a record $800 billion in total exports for 2024-25.
Non-petroleum exports grew 25.6% in October, reaching a record $211.3 billion for the first seven months of the year.
Petroleum imports rose 13.2% in October, reaching $18.3 billion, driven by higher domestic demand.
Petroleum exports fell 22% to $4.6 billion, the lowest in almost three years.
The oil trade deficit hit a record $13.7 billion.
Despite lower global oil prices, the import bill increased significantly, raising concerns.
The overall import bill reached a new high of $66.3 billion, surpassing August’s $64.3 billion, which was inflated by gold imports.
The widening trade deficit is a concern, although foreign exchange reserves are adequate to cover about a year’s imports.
The World Trade Organization expects global trade growth of 3% in 2025, up from a 2.7% estimate for 2024.
Key risks include the slowdown in China, ongoing global conflicts, and potential trade policies from the incoming U.S. administration, which could prioritize tariffs and domestic production incentives.
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