Tropical cyclones rank among the most destructive natural phenomena, capable of causing massive destruction and loss of life.
The North Indian Ocean basin, despite fewer cyclones compared to other regions, faces significant vulnerability due to densely populated coastal areas.
The Bhola cyclone of 1970 remains the deadliest tropical cyclone on record, highlighting the region’s susceptibility.
Bay of Bengal experiences more cyclones than the Arabian Sea, but the latter has seen a 52% increase in cyclone frequency and a threefold rise in the duration of very severe cyclonic storms in recent years.
Cyclonic storms are increasingly intensifying into severe cyclonic storms, with rising ocean heat content and decreasing vertical wind shear being major contributing factors.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to fuel:
More intense cyclones.
Increased precipitation rates due to higher atmospheric moisture.
Rapid intensification events.
A poleward migration of cyclone intensity.
Slower cyclone movement, increasing the potential for prolonged damage.
The poleward migration of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a phenomenon where the location of a TC's lifetime- maximum intensity (LMI) moves towards higher latitudes.
This migration has been observed in almost all TC basins over the past 30 years, with the greatest migration in the southern and northern Pacific and South Indian Oceans.
Forecasting Challenges:
The IMD predicted landfall accurately but struggled with Fengal’s unconventional track, slow progression, and intense rainfall.
Rainfall exceeding 40 cm within 24 hours was not anticipated due to limitations in weather prediction models.
Challenges include:
Predicting rapid intensification of cyclones.
Accurate rainfall forecasts during landfalls.
Limited observational data over oceans.
The post-monsoon cyclone activity of 2024 underscores the urgent need for:
Investments in advanced forecasting technologies.
Research on tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall prediction.
Protecting lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems should remain a priority as IPCC projections indicate more intense cyclones with heavier precipitation and slower movement.
Conclusion
While significant progress has been made in tropical cyclone forecasting, challenges persist, particularly in predicting cyclone intensity and associated rainfall.
Addressing these gaps through technological advancements and strategic investments is essential to mitigate the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones in the context of a changing climate.
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