Impact of Myanmar’s Political Instability
Northeast India has experienced prolonged spells of insurgency. However, over the past few decades, large parts of the region have remained free of insurgencies.
This relative peace, allowing infrastructure projects to flourish.
However, the political turmoil in Myanmar, particularly after the military coup in 2021, has caused instability, affecting the region.
Armed resistance and violence between Myanmar's military and opposition forces led to refugee movements into Northeast India.
Refugee Movement and Border Issues
Myanmar’s political crisis triggered a large refugee influx into India, especially into Mizoram and Manipur.
India’s Free Movement Regime (FMR) allowed ease of border crossing, but its abolition has been proposed to maintain internal security and demographic balance.
Influx of refugees has strained border management and worsened ethnic tensions, particularly in Manipur, where it affects the Meitei-Kuki conflict.
Economic and Strategic Setbacks
The refugee crisis has disrupted border trade, particularly in Moreh, which had potential to be a key economic hub for India’s engagement with Southeast Asia.
Plans for the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway have been delayed due to ongoing violence.
China, in contrast, has fortified its border and managed its own relationships with Myanmar's armed groups to curb criminal activity.
Solutions and Future Outlook
India must address the complex dynamics of insurgency and border security, focusing on ethnic engagement with Myanmar’s diverse groups.
A comprehensive response, including humanitarian aid and infrastructure development near the border, is crucial to reduce refugee migration.
India should prioritize economic engagement with Southeast Asia but must navigate regional conflicts and security challenges.
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