Myanmar’s Current Crisis
Myanmar, in the aftermath of the February 2021 military coup, is facing severe political and economic turmoil.
Armed battles between government troops and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) continue across the country.
Over 28,000 arrests, 6,200 deaths, and 3.3 million internally displaced people reflect the ongoing devastation.
The Military's Struggle for Control
Myanmar remains divided: the military controls the central region, while resistance groups hold peripheral areas.
Military forces are facing a prolonged war of attrition with mounting casualties, desertions, and morale issues.
ASEAN’s Limited Role
The military's preferred solution of holding elections is problematic due to violence, suppression, and the lack of control over half the country.
ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has failed, as the warring sides refuse to halt hostilities or engage in dialogue.
Neighbors’ Challenges and China’s Influence
Myanmar’s neighbors, including China and India, face difficulties in resolving the conflict due to lack of internal consensus and strained relationships.
China has increased its influence, becoming a dominant player in Myanmar’s internal conflicts as the West's involvement declines.
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