The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall (5% more than the average 87 cm) for June to September 2025.
If this happens, it will be the second year in a row with above-normal rains (2024 had 8% more than average).
Good monsoon rain is beneficial for kharif crop sowing, especially pulses, which need more land and water.
The government plans to procure pulses at MSP to reduce imports, making a good harvest more important.
The IMD gives two main monsoon forecasts — one in April and an updated version in mid-May — with regular updates after that.
This year, there's no El Niño, which is often linked to weaker monsoons, so the absence of it is a positive sign.
The Eurasian snow cover (Jan–Mar 2025) was below normal, which usually means more rainfall in India, due to an inverse relationship.
Oceanic signals are neutral, so local weather patterns, like cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, will play a bigger role.
However, above-normal rain can also lead to floods and landslides, as seen in Kerala’s Wayanad in 2024.
Governments must not just celebrate the rain forecast but also prepare infrastructure to prevent damage and loss of life from extreme weather.
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