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Pope Francis passed away on April 21, leading to a sede vacante — a period when the papal seat is empty.
A new Pope will be elected through a process called the Papal Conclave.
The Conclave is spiritual but also deeply political, involving strategy, legacy, and alliances.
How Does the Conclave Work?
The process is guided by a document called Universi Dominici Gregis, which enforces strict secrecy.
Only cardinals under 80 years can vote, but older ones may influence decisions beforehand.
A two-thirds majority is needed to elect the Pope, promoting consensus and compromise.
Behind-the-scenes influence matters, with respected ‘great electors’ shaping discussions.
Pope Francis appointed 80% of current electors, giving him lasting influence on the outcome.
Major Political Divisions Among Electors
The College of Cardinals is divided between reformists and conservatives.
Reformists support Pope Francis’s approach — inclusion, social justice, synodality.
Conservatives prefer tradition, clear doctrine, and stricter liturgical practices.
Many cardinals from the Global South don’t fit neatly into either group.
These cardinals can be swing voters, holding conservative values but supporting Francis's social focus.
Geographical Balance of Power Shift
Pope Francis appointed cardinals from non-European regions to reflect global diversity.
Europeans now make up less than half of the electors — a historic shift.
Representation from Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa has grown significantly.
This brings new priorities: poverty, interfaith dialogue, migration, environment.
A non-European Pope is now more possible due to this shift.
However, Latin America is still underrepresented compared to its Catholic population.
What Issues Will Likely Dominate the Discussions?
Synodality — a consultative Church model — is a key topic, with mixed support.
LGBTQ+ inclusion and the Fiducia Supplicans (the document allowing blessings for same-sex couples) will be debated.
Women’s roles in the Church, including women deacons, remain unresolved.
Celibacy, bioethics, and sexual abuse accountability will also be major issues.
The next Pope must handle global crises and Vatican reforms, like finance transparency.
Diplomatic challenges include the Ukraine war, U.S.-China relations, and the China-Vatican agreement (allowing the Chinese Communist Party to have a say in bishop appointments).
Why Is the Outcome Considered Unpredictable?
Secrecy means there’s no way to track vote shifts during the Conclave.
A two-thirds majority forces broad agreement across factions.
Many electors don’t know each other well, making alliances harder to predict.
There are no clear front-runners; anything can happen behind closed doors.
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