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The WTO has revised its 2025 global trade growth forecast from a rise to a decline of 0.2%.
This is nearly 3 percentage points lower than what was expected under normal tariff conditions.
If the situation worsens, global trade could shrink further by 1.5% in 2025.
In contrast, trade grew by 2.9% in 2024.
The U.S. reciprocal tariffs, if imposed, could reduce trade growth by 0.6 percentage points.
Uncertainty in trade policy may cut another 0.8 percentage points.
Combined, these factors could cause a 1.5% fall in global merchandise trade in 2025.
The UN also predicts global growth slowing to 2.3% in 2025, indicating a shift toward recession.
Developing countries are expected to face more pressure due to weak demand and financial instability.
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