The Story So Far
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, divides control over six rivers between India and Pakistan.
India has full rights over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Pakistan controls the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, but India has limited rights for non-consumptive uses like irrigation or hydropower.
Following a terror attack in Pahalgam, India announced that the IWT would be held in abeyance, meaning it would suspend its operations.
Is Unilateral Suspension Permissible?
The IWT cannot be changed unilaterally by either country, as Article XII requires both India and Pakistan to agree on any changes.
The term "hold in abeyance" used by India isn't recognized under international law, which typically refers to suspension or termination of treaties.
According to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), only a suspension of parts of a treaty is allowed, and termination can only happen through a properly ratified agreement.
India may argue that "fundamental changes in circumstances" justify revisiting the treaty under Article 62 of the VCLT, but international courts have set high standards for such claims.
In a past case (Hungary vs. Slovakia), the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that political or economic changes alone were insufficient to change or terminate a treaty.
How Will This Affect Pakistan?
Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus basin waters for agriculture and hydropower. Over 80% of Pakistan's agriculture depends on these rivers, making any disruption significant.
India, however, lacks the infrastructure to block or withhold water from the western rivers on a large scale.
India's existing infrastructure is mainly run-of-the-river hydropower plants, which don't store large volumes of water.
The real risk lies in India's potential to regulate water flow, causing uncertainty in Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
If India adjusts its hydropower projects to store more water or releases water suddenly, it could cause disruptions and damage downstream in Pakistan, potentially affecting its economy and infrastructure.
COMMENTS