The story so far
India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2021 was 2.0, which is the same as in 2020.
Although the national average is stable, different States and Union Territories have different TFR levels.
Which State saw highest TFR?
Bihar had the highest TFR in the country at 3.0.
West Bengal and Delhi had the lowest TFR at 1.4
Between 2009-11 and 2019-21, TFR has generally decreased in most States.
What does TFR measure?
TFR tells us how many children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (ages 15 to 49).
It is calculated using data about how many children women of different age groups are having.
This information comes from the Sample Registration System (SRS), which is India’s largest demographic survey.
In 2021, the survey collected data from about 84 lakh people across the country.
What do fertility indicators record?
The SRS report includes many fertility measures like Crude Birth Rate (CBR), General Fertility Rate, and Sex Ratio at Birth.
CBR is the number of live births per 1,000 people.
General Fertility Rate is the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-49.
Another measure is Gross Reproduction Rate, which counts the number of daughters a woman is expected to have.
India’s TFR of 2.0 is now below the replacement level of 2.1.
Only six States have TFR above the replacement level: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
India’s CBR in 2021 was 19.3 and has been decreasing every year since 2016.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi have seen the fastest decline in CBR.
Uttarakhand was the only State where CBR increased slightly.
How do experts read fertility data?
Experts say the TFR being below replacement level shows that India’s population growth is slowing.
Southern States and some northern States with better education and health systems have much lower TFRs.
States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh still need improvement in health, education, and women’s empowerment.
On the other hand, States with very low TFRs may face different problems.
For example, in Sikkim, the TFR is below 1, which is very low.
In some places, people don’t want children because of lifestyle changes, cost of raising children, or stress.
High-TFR States need human development policies, while low-TFR States need support to deal with falling birth rates.
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