The Story So Far
The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, earlier than the usual June 1 onset.
This is one of the earliest onsets since 1975, though it doesn't always mean there will be more rain overall.
Any Secret Sauce to the Monsoon’s Early Arrival?
Scientists don’t fully understand why the monsoon sometimes arrives early.
Early arrival is not a guarantee of a good monsoon, but very late arrival often leads to a deficit in rainfall.
Predicting the exact onset date is still very difficult.
What is the Science of the Monsoon Onset?
There are multiple theories but no complete explanation of how the monsoon starts.
El Niño and La Niña do not reliably predict monsoon onset.
Climate changes since the 1970s may be causing a systematic delay, but the reasons are not clear.
Global warming adds further uncertainty to understanding these shifts.
Are Past, Present Early Onsets Similar?
The last early onset like this was in 2009, which later turned into a drought year.
Global warming in 2025 is higher than in 2009, with strange sea temperature patterns in the Pacific.
While similar onsets raise concern, it’s too soon to say 2025 will be like 2009.
How Does the Monsoon Reach Kerala?
Factors like late cyclones and wind patterns can push the monsoon trough to arrive earlier.
This year, a low-pressure system on the west coast may have helped the early onset.
However, typhoons can also delay the monsoon by pulling moisture away.
Predicting onset is hard due to the mix of local and global factors.
Will 2025 Be Like 2009?
2009 had warm tropical oceans and a shift from El Niño to La Niña, affecting the monsoon.
2025 shows some similarities, but also differences like neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions expected currently.
It's still uncertain if 2025 will follow the 2009 pattern — we need more data and time.
How is Seasonal Rainfall Distribution Changing?
Global warming and climate variability are making monsoon patterns unpredictable.
There’s growing overlap between the southwest and northeast monsoons in some areas.
Rain is becoming more erratic, with sudden floods and droughts.
Better understanding and prediction of these changes will take time and continued research.
COMMENTS