The India-Pakistan Maritime Theatre: A New Arena for Deterrence and Escalation
UPSC Relevance
Prelims: Defence and Security (Naval vessels, Military Doctrines like A2/AD); International Relations (India-Pakistan, India-China relations); Geography of India and the World (Sir Creek, Gwadar Port).
Mains:
General Studies Paper 2 (International Relations): The impact of the China-Pakistan nexus on India's security and regional stability.
General Studies Paper 3 (Internal Security & Defence): Security challenges and their management in border areas (maritime security); Role of external state and non-state actors in creating challenges to internal security; Indigenization of technology. This is a classic case study for the dynamics of conventional deterrence between nuclear-armed neighbors.
Key Highlights from the News
Post-May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, the strategic competition between the two countries has shifted from the air to the maritime theatre.
The navies of both countries are acquiring new weapons, conducting exercises, and issuing strong statements to demonstrate their power.
Pakistan's moves: Acquiring Chinese-built submarines, Turkish-built warships; transforming Gwadar port into a major naval base.
Unlike the 1971 war, India's naval superiority is no longer guaranteed. As Pakistan has enhanced its naval capabilities with the help of China and Turkey, the gap is narrowing between India and Pakistan.
Even a small maritime encounter has a higher risk of escalation into a full-scale war compared to aerial conflicts.
Pakistan's naval strategy is primarily based on Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD). Through this, they aim to keep the Indian Navy away from their coast.
Chinese involvement in Gwadar and Karachi increases the likelihood of China assisting Pakistan in case of a conflict. This further complicates India's military calculations.
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