India's Falling TFR: A Critical Look at the 'Tempo Effect' and its Policy Implications
UPSC Relevance
Prelims: Indian Geography (Demographics - Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), Replacement Level Fertility); Social Development (Population issues, Demographic Dividend, Women's issues).
Mains:
General Studies Paper 1 (Society): "Population and associated issues"; "Poverty and developmental issues"; "Role of women". (Core topic).
General Studies Paper 3 (Economy): "Inclusive growth and issues arising from it"; "Employment". (Connects to demographic dividend).
Essay: High potential. Topics on Demographic Dividend vs. Demographic Disaster, Aging Population, etc.
Key Highlights from the News
The UNFPA report indicates that India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9. This is below the replacement level fertility of 2.1.
This has shifted the discussion from concerns about population growth to concerns about ageing populations.
However, the article argues that this TFR of 1.9 is only a statistical measure and may not reflect the actual situation.
The main drawback in calculating TFR is the "tempo effect". That is, women delaying childbirth / postponement for education and career artificially reduces the TFR in that year's calculations.
The decline in Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) among young people (15-24) in India and the increase in ASFR among older age groups (25-34) indicates this trend of delaying childbirth.
Therefore, the article concludes that India should focus on utilizing the demographic dividend by providing employment to the current youth, rather than fearing the decline in TFR.
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