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  • Historically, most cyclones around India originate in the Bay of Bengal

  • But global warming is causing the Arabian Sea to heat up more than average, leading to the formation of stronger cyclones in that region.

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) takes more time to accurately forecast the trajectory of cyclones originating in the Arabian Sea compared to those in the Bay of Bengal.

  • Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, being more frequent, are better understood by experts

  • while the Arabian Sea cyclones have been historically fewer due to colder sea surface temperatures.

  • The direction and recurving of cyclones are influenced by the steering winds in the upper atmosphere, while the strength and duration of cyclones are determined by the heat within the ocean layers.

  • Prediction models often capture the heat component of cyclones but struggle to fully capture the wind component, leading to challenges in accurately forecasting the intensity and movement of Arabian Sea cyclones.

  • The Arabian Sea has a deeper layer of warm water compared to the Bay of Bengal, up to 40 meters deep

  • Sub-surface values of temperature and other factors in the Arabian Sea are sometimes not fully captured in prediction models, leading to inaccuracies in forecasting cyclone strength and speed.

  • Cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a higher percentage of not making landfall compared to those in the Bay of Bengal, with approximately 48% of Arabian Sea cyclones never reaching land, as opposed to 13% in the Bay of Bengal.


  • Cyclones like Cyclone Tauktae and Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea and Cyclone Yaas, Mandous, and Gulab in the Bay of Bengal have demonstrated differences in forecast accuracy, with Bay of Bengal cyclones being more accurately predicted several days in advance.

  • The understanding and forecasting of Arabian Sea cyclones are areas that require further research and improvement to enhance accuracy and timely warnings for coastal regions.



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Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam: Cyclone UPSC NOTE
Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam
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