Trends in global trade UPSC NOTE

 

• Global trade is facing a number of headwinds

• Weaker economic activity: The global economy is slowing down, which is leading to lower demand for goods and services. 

• This is hurting businesses and exporters, and is making it more difficult for them to grow.

• Inflation: Inflation is rising in many countries, which is reducing the purchasing power of consumers. 

• This is leading to lower demand for goods and services, and is hurting businesses and exporters.

• Tightening monetary policies: Central banks in many countries are raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. 

• This is making it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which is slowing down investment and economic growth.

• Disrupted supply chains: The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have disrupted supply chains, which has made it more difficult for businesses to get the goods and services they need. 

• This is leading to higher prices and lower availability of goods, which is hurting businesses and consumers.

• Financial instability: The collapse of several financial institutions in advanced economies is a cause for concern. 

• This could lead to a financial crisis, which would have a negative impact on global trade.

• The ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe is impacting the prices of energy, food, and commodities.

• Despite receding from their post-conflict peaks, food and energy prices remained high by historical standards, affecting real incomes and import demand.

• The impact of energy prices was particularly strong during Europe's winter months as Russia, a major energy supplier, faced sanctions.

• Europe responded by diversifying energy suppliers, which potentially increased LNG prices in other regions like Japan.

• The collapse of financial institutions, including FTX and three banks in the U.S., along with a loss of confidence in Credit Suisse, has added to the troubled economic scenario.

• The events have raised concerns about financial contagion in an already slowing economy, as highlighted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).