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World Economic Outlook 2023 UPSC NOTE

 Major findings of report

  • World Economic outlook is a semi- annual report, Published by International Monetary fund(IMF).

  •  ‘Navigating Global Divergences’ October 2023, has revised its projected GDP growth rate for India for 2023-24 to 6.3%. 

  • The success is sweeter as the IMF revised downwards world GDP growth projection, including China’s by 0.3 percentage points, to 4.2%. 

  • The economies that were worst affected during the COVID-19 pandemic were also the ones to record a steep recovery is widely acknowledged

  • India, which was one of the worst affected, has followed the pattern. 

  • During the second quarter of 2020, India’s GDP contracted by 25.6%, quarter on quarter

  • The worst among the world’s major economies as reported by the then IMF Chief Economist, in a tweet on September 2, 2020. 

  • The output contraction in 2020-21, at 8.5% over the previous year, was one of the worst among the world’s large economies.

  • Taking a slightly longer view, India’s real annual GDP growth rate slowed down from 6.8% in 2016-17 to 2.8% in 2019-20, immediately prior to the pandemic. 

  • Real per capita income level in 2021-22, at ₹1.09 lakh, was higher than that in 2019-20 by about ₹600. 

  • In the following year, 2022-23, recovery gained momentum as domestic supplies were restored and global supply chains were straightened out.

  • However, even focusing on output recovery, a sectoral view with trade dimension, would perhaps expose chinks on the armour, as detailed below. 

  • Policymakers need to temper their optimism by taking a slightly longer view with a wider angle — appreciating the fast-changing geopolitical underpinnings of economic policy making

  • It perhaps bears repetition that 2022-23 heralded the end of globalisation  with tectonic shifts in the world geopolitical order.

  • However, the immediate concern is India’s susceptibility to its soaring deficit with China.

  • India’s economic frailty has increased even as the net exports to GDP ratio has declined sharply.

  • India’s dependence on Chinese imports of manufactures seems structural, and not easily corrected by changes in relative prices.

  • The government initiated the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, amidst the Galwan crisis to curb Chinese imports of critical industrial products. 

  • China accounts 15%-16% of India’s imports and a third of India’s trade deficit

  • The trade deficit continues to rise, however (“India’s Trade dilemma with China”, Pal and Ray, businessline, June 20, 2023). 

  • Willy nilly, India undid many import restrictions, as domestic production was getting throttled for lack of critical Chinese inputs

  • On social development, official spokespersons and critics have battled over the veracity of multidimensional poverty measure, and the unrepresentativeness of the Global Hunger Index.

  • The UN Development Programme’s Human Development Index may be more credible and an acceptable measure

  • The value of India’s HDI index moderated from 0.645 in 2018 to 0.633 in 2021.



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Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam: World Economic Outlook 2023 UPSC NOTE
World Economic Outlook 2023 UPSC NOTE
Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam
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