The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its outlook of an ‘above normal’ monsoon this year.
In April, the agency forecast June-September rainfall to be 6% above the normal of 87 cm.
India’s north-eastern States are expected to receive deficient rain.
The monsoon ‘core zone’, which encompasses most of central India and is critical for the kharif crop, and southern India are expected to see ‘above normal’ rainfall
Cyclone Remal, which made landfall in Bangladesh, had given a push to the eastern branch of the approaching monsoon system.
The cyclone has nudged it closer to the Indian mainland though it was yet uncertain if the monsoon would begin in eastern India before Kerala — an extremely unusual, but not unprecedented phenomenon
India’s strong monsoon rainfall is predicated on El Niño conditions withering away to ‘neutral’ conditions and the onset of La Niña conditions during the later part of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.
The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season
El Nino, La Nina and IOD conditions refer to temperatures in the Central Pacific, and the eastern and western halves of the Indian Ocean respectively.
La Nina conditions coupled with a favourable IOD spell good rains for India.
COMMENTS