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IMD forecast UPSC NOTE


  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its outlook of an ‘above normal’ monsoon this year. 

  • In April, the agency forecast June-September rainfall to be 6% above the normal of 87 cm

  • India’s north-eastern States are expected to receive deficient rain.

  • The monsoon ‘core zone’, which encompasses most of central India and is critical for the kharif crop, and southern India are expected to see ‘above normal’ rainfall

  • Cyclone Remal, which made landfall in Bangladesh, had given a push to the eastern branch of the approaching monsoon system

  • The cyclone has nudged it closer to the Indian mainland though it was yet uncertain if the monsoon would begin in eastern India before Kerala — an extremely unusual, but not unprecedented phenomenon

  • India’s strong monsoon rainfall is predicated on El Niño conditions withering away to ‘neutral’ conditions and the onset of La Niña conditions during the later part of the monsoon season. 

  • At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. 

  • The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season

    • El Nino, La Nina and IOD conditions refer to temperatures in the Central Pacific, and the eastern and western halves of the Indian Ocean respectively. 

    • La Nina conditions coupled with a favourable IOD spell good rains for India.



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Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam: IMD forecast UPSC NOTE
IMD forecast UPSC NOTE
Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam
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