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Malaria transmission risk in Africa UPSC NOTE

 Why in news

  • Areas at risk for malaria transmission in Africa may decline more than previously expected because of climate change in the 21st century.

  • Suggests an ensemble of environmental and hydrologic models

  • The combined models predicted that the total area of suitable malaria transmission will start to decline in Africa after 2025 through 2100,

  • It including in West Africa and as far east as South Sudan. 

  • The new study’s approach captures hydrologic features that are missed with predictive models of transmission.

How climate change will affect malaria transmission risk in Africa

  • The impact of climate change on malaria transmission risk in Africa is a complex issue with some surprising recent findings. 

Traditional View:

  • Historically, a connection was drawn between warmer temperatures and increased malaria transmission. 

  • Warmer temperatures can shorten the development cycle of the malaria parasite within mosquitoes.

    • Warmer temperatures can also expand the geographical range of mosquito species that transmit malaria.

Recent Findings:

  • New research suggests a potential decrease in overall malaria transmission risk in Africa due to climate change, starting from around 2025 onwards.

  • This is because some regions in Africa may experience: 

    • Increased aridity and drought due to climate change. 

    • These drier conditions are not suitable for mosquito breeding, potentially reducing transmission rates.

Important Caveats:

  • This decrease is not predicted to be uniform across Africa. 

  • Some areas, particularly at higher elevations, might see an increase in transmission risk due to changing weather patterns.

  • The overall impact of climate change on malaria is likely to vary depending on the specific location and the effectiveness of existing control measures.

Uncertainties Remain:

  • The long-term effects of climate change on factors like rainfall patterns and humidity are still uncertain. 

  • These factors can significantly influence mosquito breeding and malaria transmission.



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Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam: Malaria transmission risk in Africa UPSC NOTE
Malaria transmission risk in Africa UPSC NOTE
Learnerz IAS | Concept oriented UPSC Classes in Malayalam
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