Historical Relationship:
Putin and Xi have met over 40 times in the past 11 years, reflecting a deepening relationship.
Their meeting in Beijing marks the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations and is considered one of their most consequential meetings due to its broader global impact.
Phases of Russia-China Relations:
The passage outlines five historical phases of Russia-China relations, from territorial expansion and Comintern brotherhood to ideological conflicts and realignments influenced by the U.S.
The current phase began in 2012 with China’s growing assertiveness and the subsequent Western pivot towards Asia, leading to closer Russia-China ties, especially after the 2022 Beijing Summit where they declared their ties had "No Limits".
Current Dynamics and Economic Ties
Recent Developments:
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Western sanctions have pushed Russia closer to China.
Their trade reached $240 billion in 2023, with significant energy exports from Russia to China.
Trade Comparisons:
Despite growing ties with Russia, China still trades more with the U.S. ($575 billion in 2023).
India's trade with the U.S. and China was $118 billion each, and $66 billion with Russia.
Joint Statement and Implications
The 7,000-word joint statement after the summit avoided specifics on bilateral economic, financial, and military ties, possibly to avoid Western sanctions or mask disagreements.
It criticized the U.S. for its “dual containment” policy and its Indo-Pacific Strategy, indicating a united front against Western influence.
Short-term: Intensified bilateral cooperation, particularly in dual-use materials for Russia's Ukraine campaign, and potential Chinese gains in raw materials and technology.
Long-term: Possible new Cold War dynamics with China seeking a credible alternative to the U.S.-dominated global order, leveraging organizations like BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative.
Impact on India
Challenges and Opportunities for India:
India must assess the durability of Russia-China ties given their historical fluctuations.
Russia's economic dependence on China could affect its reliability as India's defense supplier amidst border tensions with China.
Strategic Adjustments for India:
India should advocate for a higher profile within the existing global order.
Unlike its non-aligned stance during the Cold War, India now has strategic autonomy and should adopt a pragmatic, realpolitik approach to leverage new opportunities and pursue its national goals effectively.
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