Declining School Enrolment
The Ministry of Education's U-DISE+ data revealed a 15.5 million drop in school enrolment, marking a turning point in India's demographic window.
A decade-long decline in enrolment, especially at elementary levels (18.7 million drop), signals the beginning of the end of India’s demographic dividend era.
This decline in enrolment is not just a methodological change but reflects an actual demographic shift, with a reduction in the school-age population.
Government vs. Private School Trends
Government schools, which serve marginalized groups, saw a pronounced drop of 18.31% in elementary enrolment, while government-aided schools dropped by 24.34%.
Despite overall enrolment decline, private unaided schools recorded a modest increase of 2.03%, with a notable 15.55% rise at the senior secondary level, showing a shift in preferences
The decreasing enrolment in government schools, particularly at the elementary level, may indicate challenges in reaching vulnerable groups.
Demographic Shifts Impacting Enrolment
The decline in enrolment correlates with a drop in the relevant school-age population, especially in the 6-13 and 14-15 years age groups, leading to fewer children in schools.
India’s fertility rate has dropped to 2.01 in 2022, further indicating a decrease in the younger population that feeds into school enrolment.
The number of schools also decreased by 5.1% (79,109 fewer schools), showing a direct link between declining enrolment and a reduction in educational infrastructure.
Long-term Social and Economic Consequences
India is now transitioning to a phase where the working-age population is shrinking, which could hinder economic growth and delay achieving a "rich" status before the population ages.
The demographic shift from a youth-heavy population to an older one means fewer people will be contributing to the economy, leading to potential long-term economic strain.
The country may face challenges in fully utilizing the demographic dividend as its population begins to age earlier than anticipated.
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