Increasing human-caused greenhouse gas emissions may reduce the safe carrying capacity of Earth's orbit for satellites by up to 66% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
This prediction is based on a modelling study published in Nature Sustainability.
Mechanism of Atmospheric Contraction
Greenhouse gases shrink Earth’s upper atmosphere (mesosphere & thermosphere) by cooling and contracting it.
This reduces atmospheric drag, causing space debris to stay in orbit longer, increasing risks for satellites.
Findings from MIT Study
Study led by Dr. William Parker (MIT Cambridge) used atmospheric modeling to estimate the sustainable number of satellites in orbit.
Under the highest-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5):
50-66% fewer satellites can be sustained in low Earth orbit by 2100.
Equivalent to approximately 25-40 million satellites.
The study also analyzed the ideal vs. actual distribution of satellites under different emission scenarios.
Higher CO₂ emissions lead to fewer satellites deorbiting naturally, worsening space debris problems.
Conclusion & Call for Action
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial not only for Earth's climate but also for long-term access to space.
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