The El Niño/La Niña Uncertainty
India anxiously awaits monsoon forecasts, which are linked to El Niño/La Niña predictions, despite their historical imperfect correlation.
Early 2024 forecasts strongly predicted a La Niña, based on initial cold Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but these patterns shifted unexpectedly.
The current SST pattern is unusual, with cold anomalies westward and warm anomalies eastward, resembling a "Dateline El Niño."
This confused ENSO state makes forecasting difficult, with predictions ranging from La Niña to El Niño or a normal year for 2025.
Factors Influencing Monsoon Patterns
The 2023 monsoon was normal despite El Niño, potentially due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), though this is debated.
Global warming and unusual El Niño patterns in 2023 further complicate predictions.
The ENSO transition mode (ETM), a Southern Hemisphere climate variability, plays a role in transitioning between El Niño and La Niña states.
The ETM was unfavorable for a La Niña transition in 2024, contributing to the forecast's failure.
The relationship between ENSO and the monsoon has changed in recent decades, with changes to mid latitude jet streams affecting pre monsoon cyclones and the monsoon onset.
The Challenge of Climate Forecasting
The exact cause of the strange SST patterns is unknown, potentially related to record-breaking global temperatures.
Climate models are struggling to produce reliable forecasts due to the multiple influencing factors and unexplained warming.
Managing expectations regarding forecasts is a difficult task.
Implications for India
Indian farmers are heavily reliant on accurate monsoon forecasts, making the current uncertainty concerning.
The government needs reliable forecasts to manage agricultural planning and mitigate risks.
The India Meteorological Department and the climate community are working to improve forecasting accuracy.
The early onset of heat waves adds to the existing challenges.
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