India is expected to get above normal monsoon rainfall, around 5% more than the average of 87 cm, according to IMD.
If this happens, it will be the second consecutive year of above-average rainfall (last year was 8% above normal).
Good rainfall means better water availability for kharif crops and reservoir levels, but it can also lead to flooding in some areas.
The absence of El Nino (which weakens monsoons) and less Eurasian snow cover (which usually leads to more rain) are positive signs.
The IMD uses a dynamical model that simulates ocean and atmospheric patterns to predict the monsoon.
Eurasian snow cover is one of five key factors in the April forecast and has a 33% correlation with a good monsoon.
Current ocean conditions are neutral, but the atmosphere shows signs similar to La Nina, which usually supports good rainfall.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also expected to continue during the monsoon.
The core monsoon zone, covering key agricultural states, is likely to receive normal rainfall this year.
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