The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out the possibility of an El Niño during this year’s southwest monsoon season.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that warms the central Pacific Ocean, often causing reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
IMD expects neutral El Niño conditions, meaning no significant temperature rise in the Pacific.
In 2023, an El Niño year, India saw a 6% rainfall deficit; in 2024, neutral conditions led to an 8% surplus.
The IMD will release its first monsoon forecast in April, which will consider regional factors like the Indian Ocean’s conditions.
Before the monsoon, India is expected to face above-normal temperatures and heatwaves during the summer (April to June).
Parts of eastern India may experience up to 10 heatwave days this year, with more heatwaves expected in the north, east, central, and northwest regions.
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