Current Fertility Trends in India
India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2021 was 2.0, the same as in 2020.
Delhi and West Bengal had the lowest TFR (1.4), while Bihar had the highest (3.0).
Bihar’s TFR has stayed around 3.0 for the last 6–7 years and may reach the replacement level (2.1) only by 2039.
Factors Behind High TFR in Bihar
Poverty contributes to high fertility, but cultural factors also play a big role.
In Bihar, only 49.6% of women said two children is ideal, compared to 67% nationally.
Even in urban areas of Bihar, TFR is high (2.3), unlike the national urban average (1.6), showing fertility is a conscious choice.
Preferences for sons and the need for labour in agricultural families also influence family size.
Female literacy in Bihar is low (53% in 2011), and improving education is linked to lower TFR.
Role of Social and Family Structures
Women have limited autonomy, often restricted by family elders (like mother-in-laws) in health-related interactions.
Even educated women have low exposure, low employability, and limited decision-making power.
There is a common desire among families for at least two sons, which leads to larger family sizes when daughters are born instead.
Broader Political and Regional Implications
Northern States like Bihar, UP, and MP have higher TFR and larger populations.
Southern States, with lower TFR, may face reduced political representation after the next delimitation (redrawing of constituencies).
There’s a risk that States that succeeded in lowering fertility might be penalized politically and economically.
A growing divide in population and fertility trends between north and south could threaten democratic balance and fairness.
COMMENTS