Main Finding
Poverty in India reduced rapidly from 37% (2004-05) to 22% (2011-12).
But the pace slowed down significantly after that, dropping to only 18% in 2022-23.
Why Is It Important?
India has had no official poverty estimate since 2011-12.
This paper tries to fill the gap using alternative methods.
Three Main Methods Used in Poverty Estimates
NSSO Survey Method
Uses a basic consumption question called Usual Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (UMPCE) from NSSO surveys.
Not reliable due to lack of detail and inconsistency with older data.
PFCE Growth Method
Uses growth in national consumption (Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)) to update 2011-12 data.
Criticized for assuming uniform consumption growth across people.
Survey-to-Survey Imputation
Fills gaps using similar surveys (employment and consumption).
Uses state-level adjustments for more accuracy.
What Their Method Shows
The number of poor people fell only slightly:
250 million (2011-12) → 225 million (2022-23)
Differences Between States
Uttar Pradesh made good progress.
Bihar and Jharkhand saw slow reduction in poverty.
Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh saw stagnation.
Supporting Evidence of Slower Progress
Slower GDP growth:
6.9% (2004–12) → 5.7% (2012–23)
Lower rural wage growth:
4.13% yearly (2004–12) → 2.3% (2012–23)
More people returning to agriculture:
68 million added back since 2017-18
Indicates lower non-farm job opportunities
Conclusion
India needs updated official poverty data.
Multiple sources show that poverty is declining, but not fast enough.
More targeted and accelerated efforts are needed to lift people out of poverty.
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