Nature and Impact of the Pahalgam Attack
The Pahalgam terror attack, targeting civilians, is the deadliest since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
The attackers segregated victims by religion before execution, aimed at terrorizing India and hurting Kashmir’s economy.
The attack was a calculated move, not like previous “fidayeen” attacks, with a planned escape route.
India responded with a suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and military freedom to act.
India’s Response: Options and Challenges
Past responses have varied:
Operation Parakram (2001): Following the Parliament attack, India mobilized its army.
Post-Mumbai (2008): International pressure was applied on Pakistan for terror support, and it was added to FATF’s grey list.
Post-Pulwama (2019): India struck Balakot, escalating tensions.
The new response to Pahalgam must avoid old patterns and include counter-terror, retaliation, and managing Pakistan's possible counter-response.
Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, has publicly pushed for escalation, invoking Two-nation theory to highlight the divide between Hindus and Muslims.
Gen. Munir’s ideological shift towards radicalization further complicates peace prospects
from “Ittehad, Yaqeen, Tanzeem (unity, faith and discipline”), to “Iman, Taqwa, Jihad fi Sabeelillah (faith, obedience of god and struggle for the path of Allah”).
Diplomatic and Strategic Considerations
International calls for restraint (from the U.S., EU, Gulf countries) are likely if India retaliates.
Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could lead to backlash from the World Bank and neighboring countries, including China.
India must push for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT), an anti-terrorism treaty proposed in the 1990s to unite the world against terror.
India could leverage global support by listing Pakistan-based terror groups like the TRF in international forums like the UNSC and FATF.
Geopolitical and Border Considerations
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a critical factor for Pakistan, and any Indian response could impact CPEC projects and China's interests.
Pakistan’s military has used the LoC as a conduit for terror operations, and India should reconsider turning the LoC into a formal, permanent international border.
Pakistan has altered the demographics in PoK, which makes any reoccupation of the region by India impractical.
A permanent border agreement could stabilize the region, with international pressure ensuring Pakistan’s compliance.
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