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Iran’s retaliation UPSC NOTE

 Security Incidents in Iran:

  • December 15, 2023: Attack on a police station in Rask, Iran, by Jaish al-Adl, killing at least 11 security personnel.

  • December 25, 2023: Brigadier General Sayyed Razi Mousavi, IRGC adviser, killed in an air strike in Damascus. Iran blames Israel.

  • January 3, 2024: Twin blasts at a memorial event in Kerman, Iran, for Gen. Qassem Soleimani, claimed by ISIS-Khorasan, killing at least 94 people.

Iran's Retaliatory Actions (January 15-16, 2024):

  • Missile and drone strikes on Erbil, Iraq, targeting Mossad's alleged espionage center (denied by local authorities).

  • Ballistic missile strikes on Idlib, Syria, targeting alleged IS-K training camps.

  • Surprise attack in Panjgur, Pakistan, targeting Jaish al-Adl's training camps (claimed responsibility for Rask attack).

Background:

  • Escalation follows the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, leading to broader regional tensions.

  • Israel targets Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian commanders in Lebanon and Syria.

  • U.S. and U.K. target Houthis in response to their actions in the Red Sea.


Iran's Objectives:

  • Assert military strength and send a message to Sunni militants and conventional rivals.

  • Demonstrate readiness to take military action against perceived hostile targets.

  • Assure the Iranian people of the government's assertiveness in ensuring national security.

  • Exploit perceived distractions of Israel in Gaza and the U.S. with the Houthis.

Uncertain Outcomes:

  • The multiple strikes may either improve Iran's internal and external security or worsen the existing regional security crisis.

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