China’s Shift Under Xi Jinping
Under Xi Jinping, China is increasingly focusing on its past, emphasizing its status as a "wronged" civilization.
Tensions on its borders, including with India, are part of China’s attempt to restore historical territorial boundaries, despite weak legal or historical grounds.
The aggressive posture is aligned with the broader goals of asserting China's dominance regionally and globally.
Border Skirmishes and De-escalation
India and China have faced several border skirmishes since 2013, with notable incidents at Depsang (2013), Demchok (2016), Doklam (2017), and Galwan (2020), showing China’s ongoing provocative behavior.
Though there are recent signs of de-escalation, such as the India-China Border Patrolling Agreement, the situation remains tense along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
PM Modi’s comments on normalcy returning post his talks with President Xi in 2024 have yet to be fully reflected in the border situation.
A cautious approach is necessary as China has shown tendencies to change its stance without real commitment to peace.
China’s Military and Technological Advancements
China’s defense budget has been raised by 7.2% in 2024, significantly outpacing India’s defense spending, which stands at less than 2% of its GDP, highlighting a concerning gap in military capabilities.
The People’s Liberation Army has a significant presence in Ladakh, with over 100,000 soldiers and sophisticated weaponry, raising concerns for India.
China’s advancements in AI, cyber capabilities, and anti-satellite technologies give it an edge in modern warfare, posing a challenge to India’s defense strategies.
Despite China’s talk of peace, its military modernization is focused on strengthening its war-fighting capabilities, including in the realm of nuclear weapons
China’s Influence in India’s Neighborhood
China’s growing influence in South Asia is evident as it engages countries like Bangladesh and expands its presence in Africa
India seems to be losing focus on strengthening relations with its neighbors while China successfully gains ground, including in energy resources and technological partnerships.
In terms of nuclear energy, China has made considerable strides in Africa, which could impact India’s own energy security and strategic position in the region.
India needs to recalibrate its foreign policy to address these shifting dynamics and focus on regaining influence in its immediate neighborhood.
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